The Deere earnings minutes ago inspired the markets more than the presidents speech last evening. DE beat on the bottom line by 25 cents but only by a smidge on the top line, guidance was encouraging. DE popped 5% then pulled back to up 2%. This is a feather in the bulls cap and the S&P futures jumped a couple handles to +3. Retail Sales are the most important economic data release this week at 8:30 AM. Business Inventories will create a market pivot point at 10 AM. Oil Inventories are 10:30 AM. Fed's Bullard speaks at 11:10 AM. The 10-Year Note Auction is 1 PM. The 10-year yield moves above 2% this morning now at 2.02%. The euro just pushed above 1.35. Oil is flat at 97.88. Brent oil is pushing towards 119. Oil inventories will affect pricing. Copper is up.
There are no sellers in the markets so the bulls push the broad indexes higher on light volume. Utilities and copper are key. Watch UTIL 469.78, UTIL 468 and JJC 46.43. DUK earnings are today so that will affect utilities. Market bears got nothing unless they can touch one of those three levels. For the SPX starting at 1519, the bulls need to push through 1522, if so, the high 1520's are on tap. Remember, the December 2007 high at 1523.57 (12/11/07) is uber important. The SPX intraday high yesterday prints a new high for 2013 at 1522.29. The bears need to push under 1516 to create downside momo that will test 1511 quickly. A move through 1517-1521 is sideways action.
Note Added 2/13/13 at 7:59 AM: Whoopsies daisies. DE now went negative pre-market, down -0.7%. Quick, Harry! Bring that air hose over here and pump some air into these tractor tires, they are leaking fast. CLF is sailing off the cliff after disappointing news last evening including a divvy cut. Lack of interest in iron ore means lack of interest in steel which means lack of a robust global recovery. BWLD is sinking this morning after earnings last evening, perhaps the Superbowl wings did not go down so well. RAX is another one beaten and looking like a dark cloud. S&P's +2.75.
Note Added 2/13/13 at 8:33 AM: Retail Sales in line with estimates, not providing a boost to futures. All that build-up and the retail sales are not providing a push either way, perhaps a hair of an advantage for bears. Business Inventories and Oil Inventories will provide morning excitement after trading begins. The euro is under 1.35 now at 1.3478. S&P's +2.5.
Note Added 2/13/13 at 9:42 AM: SPX punches above 1522, whoa Nellie, look at that four pennies away from the key December 2007 high as mentioned above; HOD is 1523.53, so far. High drama to begin the day.
Note Added 2/13/13 at 10:17 AM: Markets dropped on the Business Inventories news. SPX travels across the critical December 2007 top at 1523.57, now printing 1524.07. The bullish push continues. The 2-hour, 1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute, etc..., charts are set up with negative divergence with the higher highs today so the markets should become weaker as the day moves along. There is lots of consternation at this 1523.50-1524.00 price level. UTIL is flat at 476.60. JJC is 47.29 up a few pennies. Oil Inventories on tap. TRIN is 1.04, four pennies bear-friendly.
Note Added 2/13/13 at 11:56 AM: Bears trying to make a move today. Note the drop in the euro now at 1.3448 after well over 1.35 a few short hours ago. Craziness. Down euro=down markets although the bears were short-changed on this relationship last Friday. Crude is negative, ditto copper, JJC is at 47.10. Watch to see if JJC loses 47 today, or not. UTIL is 475.71, bears need more ute weakness to gain downside momo. TRIN jumped to 1.50 creating the market move lower. VIX over 13. Watch to see if the 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart. SPX and Dow Industrials are red but Nasdaq is green. Financials are flat today. The 10-year yield pulled back to 2% now back to 2.01%. The equity bears want to see the 10-year yield drop under 2%.